FROM CARTER TO REAGAN TO BUSH
A Statistical Comparison of Presidencies
by Pierre Kim
from the Winter 1993 issue of Policy Review magazine
To subscribe to Policy Review, call (800) 544-4843.

Median family income in final month of term
Carter: $34,765
Reagan I: $34,667
Reagan II: $37,080
Bush: $35,939

Median family income for whites in final month of term
Carter: $36,221
Reagan I: $36,310
Reagan II: $39,065
Bush: $37,783

Median family income for blacks in final month of term
Carter: $20,959
Reagan I: $20,237
Reagan II: $22,374
Bush: $21,548

Rise in unemployment rate during term
Carter: 0 percent
Reagan I: -0.3 percent
Reagan II: -1.8 percent
Bush: 2.1 percent

Rise in unemployment rate for blacks during term
Carter: 0.4 percent
Reagan I: 1.5 percent
Reagan II: -4.2 percent
Bush: 2.0 percent

Unemployment rate in final month of term
Carter: 7.5 percent
Reagan I: 7.2 percent
Reagan II: 5.4 percent
Bush: 7.5 percent

New jobs created during term
Carter: 9,027,000
Reagan I: 7,347,000
Reagan II: 10,431,000
Bush: 968,000

New jobs created for blacks during term
Carter: 1,076,800
Reagan I: 806,000
Reagan II: 1,540,000
Bush: 221,000

Employment in private (non-farm) sector in final month of term
Carter: 80.5 million
Reagan I: 87.3 million
Reagan II: 96.1 million
Bush: 95.9 million

Civilian employment in final month of term
Carter: 99 million
Reagan I: 106.3 million
Reagan II: 116.7 million
Bush: 117.7 million

Average annual real growth rate of domestic spending
Carter: 2.95 percent
Reagan I: 0.87 percent
Reagan II: 0.19 percent
Bush: 7.54 percent

Average annual real growth rate of entitlement spending
Carter: 3.7 percent
Reagan I: 2.5 percent
Reagan II: 0.22 percent
Bush:7.9 percent

Domestic discretionary spending in final year of term
Carter: $205.7 billion
Reagan I: $181.6 billion
Reagan II: $184.1 billion
Bush: $211.9 billion

Domestic entitlement spending in final year of term
Carter: $457.1 billion
Reagan I: $502.6 billion
Reagan II: $505.2 billion
Bush: $653.6 billion

Total domestic spending in final year of term (in billions)
Carter: $662.8
Reagan I: $684.3
Reagan II: $689.3
Bush: $921.9

Average annual real growth rate of domestic discretionary spending
Carter: 1.41 percent
Reagan I: -2.86 percent
Reagan II: 0.38 percent
Bush: 3.60 percent

Pages in the Federal Register of new regulations in final year of term
Carter: 87,012
Reagan I: 50,997
Reagan II: 53,376
Bush: 67,716

Average annual growth rate of gross national product
Carter: 2.5 percent
Reagan I: 2.3 percent
Reagan II: 3.2 percent
Bush: 0.9 percent

Annualized CPI inflation rate in final month of term
Carter: 11.8 percent
Reagan I: 3.5 percent
Reagan II: 4.7 percent
Bush: 3.0 percent

Rise in inflation rate during term
Carter: 6.6 percent
Reagan I: -8.5 percent
Reagan II: 1.2 percent
Bush: -1.7 percent

Rise in misery index (CPI inflation rate plus unemployment rate) during term
Carter: 6.85 percent
Reagan I: -8.6 percent
Reagan II: -0.6 percent
Bush: 0.4 percent

Highest capital-gains tax rate during term
Carter: 49.1 percent
Reagan I: 20 percent
Reagan II: 28 percent
Bush: 28 percent

Net capital gains income by individuals in final year of term
Carter: $23.1
Reagan I: $53.8
Reagan II: $152.8
Bush: $108.8

Federal personal income-tax rate for top brackets
Carter: 70 percent
Reagan I: 50 percent
Reagan II: 28 percent
Bush: 31 percent

Rise in interest rate (long-term government bond rate) during term
Carter: 5.5 percent
Reagan I: -0.7 percent
Reagan II: -2.1 percent
Bush: -2.1 percent

Billions Americans gave to charity in final year of term
Carter: $80.5
Reagan I: $92.5
Reagan II: $119.5
Bush: $124.8

Percentage of high-school seniors who have ever used illicit drugs in final
year of term
Carter: 65 percent
Reagan I: 62 percent
Reagan II: 54 percent
Bush: 47 percent

Average prime rate charged by banks in final month of term
Carter: 18.97 percent
Reagan I: 12.04 percent
Reagan II: 9.3 percent
Bush: 6.5 percent

Budget deficit in final year of term [in billions)
Carter: $119.0
Reagan I: $264.6
Reagan II: $167.2
Bush: $320.2

Deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product in final year of term
Carter: 2.7 percent
Reagan I: 5.3 percent
Reagan II: 3 percent
Bush: 5.5 percent

Gross federal debt in final year of term
Carter: $1.5 trillion
Reagan I: $2.2 trillion
Reagan II: $3.1 trillion
Bush: $4.2 trillion

Net national debt in final year of term
Carter: $1.2 trillion
Reagan I: $1.8 trillion
Reagan II: $2.4 trillion
Bush: $3.2 trillion

Net interest paid on the national debt in final year of term (in billions)
Carter: $103.5
Reagan I: $161.4
Reagan II: $184.1
Bush: $197.4

Interest payments as a percentage of the federal budget (average over term)
Carter: 8.8 percent
Reagan I: 12.3 percent
Reagan II: 14.1 percent
Bush: 14.4 percent

Annual crime rate in final month of term (per 100,000 population) Carter:
5,950
Reagan I: 5,031
Reagan II: 5,664
Bush: 5,897

Dow Jones Industrial Average during term (average of daily closes)
Carter: 862.67
Reagan I: 1,044.78
Reagan II: 1864.45
Bush: 2789.83

Percentage of Americans living below poverty level in final month of term
Carter: 14.0 percent
Reagan I: 14.0 percent
Reagan II: 12.8 percent
Bush: 14.3 percent

Percentage of whites living below poverty level in final month of term
Carter: 11.1 percent
Reagan I: 11.4 percent
Reagan II: 10 percent
Bush: 11.3 percent

Percentage of blacks living below poverty level in final month of term
Carter: 34.2 percent
Reagan I: 31.3 percent
Reagan II: 30.7 percent
Bush: 32.7 percent

Per capita personal income in final month of term
Carter: $15,928
Reagan I: $17,525
Reagan II: $19,048
Bush: $19,826

Per capita disposable income at end of term
Carter: $13,700
Reagan I: $15,292
Reagan II: $16,820
Bush: $17,361

N.B.: "Final month/year of term" refers to president's last month or year in
office, or, for tax and budget figures, the fiscal year that began in October
of his last year. Example: Fiscal 1993 began October 1, 1992; this is Bush's
last fiscal year. "During term" signifies four-year data from the January
that the president is inaugurated to the January that he leaves office. Data
for the Bush presidency represent the latest available information, whether
for September 1992 (monthly) or 1991 (yearly). All dollar figures represent
constant 1991 dollars based on the Consumer Price Index, or, for budget
figures, the composite deflator.

PIERRE KIM is a recent graduate of the University of California at Berkeley.

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